A Massachusetts-based research firm concludes that the first-world market for type 2 drugs and treatments will increase from $27 billion in sales in 2012 to $47 billion in 2022.
The firm, Decision Resources, says increased sales in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, will come from both an increase in the type 2 patient population and the introduction of new drugs.
The report says that proprietary DPP-4 inhibitors, such as Merck’s Januvia (sitagliptin), will continue lead the market in terms of overall share through 2022. However, Decision Resources predicts that sales in the DPP-4 inhibitor category will peak at $14 billion by 2021 then erode in the wake of the introduction of generic versions.
A newer drug category, the SGLT-2 inhibitors, which work by expelling glucose through the kidneys, are predicted to be the fastest growing class of type 2 drugs. Examples of the class include Invokana from Johnson & Johnson, and Forxiga from AstraZeneca/Bristol-Myers.
Another contributor to drug sales growth will be from attempts by pharmaceutical companies to distinguish their products by combining current therapies into novel combinations, such as long-acting insulin and GLP-1 receptor agonist (such as Byetta and Victoza).